Predicting match probabilities

I'm considering the predicted probabilities based on ELO ratings and historical betting markets. I’d estimate Atleti's win probability as 45-50% away, 55-60% in neutral games, and 65-70% at home. Tactical reasons could include Atleti's transition play and Fulham's pressing style, plus the importance of set pieces. Key players for Atleti might be Griezmann and Morata, while Fulham has Palhinha and Pereira. I should clarify which season the user refers to while keeping my answer concise and reader-friendly.Estimating match probabilities

For a one-off match at Craven Cottage, I'd slightly favor Atleti. I might estimate Fulham's win probability around 38-42%, while Atleti’s chances could be about 40% for an away win, 30% for a draw, and 30% for a Fulham win. Given ELO ratings, if there’s a 150-point difference, the home advantage for Fulham could yield a marginal net difference in favor of Atleti. So, I’d suggest probabilities of 40-45% win for Atleti, 30% draw, and 25-30% loss, emphasizing tactical matchups as well.